Delivering Financial Advice With Passion & Integrity

After a rough start to the second quarter, U.S. equity markets staged an impressive rally to get us back to where we were at the beginning of the year. While the recent exuberance may have temporarily quelled investor concerns, the rally is showing signs of stalling out and we see reasons to exercise caution heading into the summer.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, domestic consumption in Q1 was lackluster, the threat of inflationary pressures persists, and cracks are emerging in both the U.S. Treasury market and the labor market. In short, we have effectively returned to the stretched equity valuations we had at the beginning of the year, only with a much less stable economic foundation.

We are not yet in a recession. However, a weakening job market, fiscal and trade uncertainties, persistent inflationary pressures, extremely stretched equity valuations, and increased volatility in financial markets are inconsistent with a thriving economy. Whether or not we end up meeting the technical definition of a recession is largely irrelevant—if current trends continue, we could find ourselves in an environment that feels a lot like one. Investors should govern themselves accordingly.