The Simmons Partnership https://thesimmonspartnership.com/ Delivering Financial Advice with Passion & Integrity Fri, 20 Mar 2026 19:37:10 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/cropped-tsp-favicon-32x32.jpg The Simmons Partnership https://thesimmonspartnership.com/ 32 32 Fed Rate Cuts Would Risk Repeating the Mistakes of the 1970s https://thesimmonspartnership.com/fed-rate-cuts-would-risk-repeating-the-mistakes-of-the-1970s/ Thu, 19 Mar 2026 19:13:45 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1277 The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady highlights the increasingly complex economic backdrop. With slowing growth, persistent inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions, policymakers face difficult trade-offs. In this environment, the question isn’t just what the Fed will do next—but whether certain decisions could unintentionally echo past policy mistakes.

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]]> Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve’s policymaking body, announced its decision to hold short-term rates steady, ending the series of three straight rate cuts that closed out 2025.

Both stocks and bonds sold off the past two days, as the move fueled inflation concerns and the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections signaled fewer than expected rate cuts the rest of this year.

This setup is eerily similar to 1973 when an oil supply shock and Fed missteps fueled inflation and drove the U.S. economy into recession.

How things ultimately play out in the U.S. depends on the duration of the oil shock and the Fed’s policy response.

Read the full post below.

Education is also a core part of what we do. We believe that informed clients are better equipped to stay grounded during periods of market stress and avoid the temptation to make reactive decisions. Through our ongoing commentary, educational series, and client communications, we aim to provide clarity around complex topics without unnecessary noise.

If you found this perspective helpful, we encourage you to explore additional insights available on our blog, including topics such as long-term investing principles, the role of diversification, and how different account types and planning strategies are used in practice.

As always, if you have questions about how current events may—or may not—impact your personal financial situation, we’re here to have that conversation.

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]]> The Reber Report Q4 2025 – Reality Check: Asymmetric Risks & Shifting Economic Fundamentals https://thesimmonspartnership.com/reber-report-q4-2025-asymmetric-market-risks/ Fri, 09 Jan 2026 20:21:15 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1262 As we enter 2026, markets and the economy are sending mixed signals. Equity valuations remain elevated and headline GDP growth appears resilient, yet much of that strength has been narrowly driven by AI-related capital investment. Beneath the surface, economic growth has been uneven, inflation remains persistent, and labor market conditions have softened to levels not seen in over a decade.

The U.S. consumer holds the key to the outlook—but confidence trends are at record lows, affordability pressures remain acute, and job growth has weakened. While consumption has ticked up recently, it’s difficult to envision the consumer driving durable growth without meaningful improvement in labor conditions.

Nevertheless, investors shouldn’t underestimate the influence of policy. A more dovish Federal Reserve and fiscal tailwinds could provide support for risk assets in 2026.

In this environment, another year of broad, passive, double-digit equity returns looks unlikely. We believe investors should stay invested, but with greater selectivity—diversifying beyond the AI momentum trade, rotating into overlooked opportunities, and actively managing risk through disciplined portfolio construction, hedging, and liquidity.

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]]> In our Q4 2025 Reber Report, we examine growing imbalances in the U.S. economy as elevated equity valuations collide with weakening labor markets and slowing fundamentals. While AI investment has supported headline growth, underlying risks are becoming harder to ignore.

Key themes in this report include:

  • Asymmetric risks for investors created by historically high equity valuations
  • The role of AI investment in masking underlying economic weakness
  • Labor market trends, liquidity, and leverage signaling late-cycle conditions
  • Why diversification, active risk management, and hedging matter in 2026

If you have questions about how current market conditions may affect your portfolio or long-term plan, we encourage you to reach out to our team.

For related insights you may find these links helpful:

The Reber Report

Thinking Out Loud…

Market Commentary

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]]> Stress in Short-Term Lending Markets is Worth Monitoring https://thesimmonspartnership.com/stress-in-short-term-lending-markets-is-worth-monitoring/ Thu, 13 Nov 2025 21:00:59 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1247 Equity market momentum has decelerated and markets are on pace for their third down week in a row. Interestingly, this pause in equity momentum has coincided with signs of liquidity strains in short-term lending markets. One such signal is the spread between two important short-term interest rates: SOFR and IORB. Large, positive spikes in this spread occurring outside typical quarter-end windows point to potential structural liquidity strains that are worth keeping an eye on.

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]]> The Reber Report Q3 2025 – Party Like It’s 1998 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/party-like-its-1998-q3-2025/ Wed, 01 Oct 2025 20:18:52 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1240 U.S. equity markets look eerily like the late 1990s. In Q3 2025, growth is weak, inflation is stubborn, and the Fed is cutting rates despite stretched valuations. The Reber Report warns investors to stay disciplined as risks of a market pullback increase.

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]]> Fed Cuts Should Lower Borrowing Costs, Right? Well, Maybe. https://thesimmonspartnership.com/fed-cuts-should-lower-borrowing-costs-right-well-maybe/ Wed, 17 Sep 2025 19:02:16 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1233 Fed rate cuts, labor market weakness, and inflation shape the 2025 economic outlook. Rising Treasury yields may offset policy easing, limiting the impact on mortgages and loans.

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]]> Weak GDP Growth Masked as Non-Farm Payrolls Decelerate https://thesimmonspartnership.com/weak-gdp-growth-masked-as-non-farm-payrolls-decelerate/ Fri, 01 Aug 2025 19:11:44 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1228 Weak GDP Growth Masked as Non-Farm Payrolls Decelerate — that’s the real story behind recent economic data. While headline GDP growth looked solid, deeper numbers show weakening consumption and a slowing labor market. Investors should evaluate their portfolios as markets adjust.

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]]> Wills vs. Trusts vs. Beneficiaries: What Every Family Should Know https://thesimmonspartnership.com/wills-vs-trusts-vs-beneficiaries-what-every-family-should-know/ Mon, 28 Jul 2025 14:04:44 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1215 Understanding how your assets transfer after death is essential to protecting your legacy. This quick guide breaks down the differences between wills, living trusts, and beneficiary designations—helping you avoid probate, minimize delays, and ensure your wishes are honored.

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]]> The Reber Report – All That Glitters Is Not Gold https://thesimmonspartnership.com/reber-report-all-that-glitters-is-not-gold/ Thu, 26 Jun 2025 20:05:24 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1200 After a rough start to the second quarter, U.S. equity markets staged an impressive rally to get us back to where we were at the beginning of the year. While the recent exuberance may have temporarily quelled investor concerns, the rally is showing signs of stalling out and we see reasons to exercise caution heading into the summer.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, domestic consumption in Q1 was lackluster, the threat of inflationary pressures persists, and cracks are emerging in both the U.S. Treasury market and the labor market. In short, we have effectively returned to the stretched equity valuations we had at the beginning of the year, only with a much less stable economic foundation.

We are not yet in a recession. However, a weakening job market, fiscal and trade uncertainties, persistent inflationary pressures, extremely stretched equity valuations, and increased volatility in financial markets are inconsistent with a thriving economy. Whether or not we end up meeting the technical definition of a recession is largely irrelevant—if current trends continue, we could find ourselves in an environment that feels a lot like one. Investors should govern themselves accordingly.

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]]> The Current State of Tariffs https://thesimmonspartnership.com/us-tariff-uncertainty-2025/ Mon, 02 Jun 2025 19:37:35 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1189 Part of doing the best job we can for you includes complimenting our research with insights from top analyst teams around the world.  I believe this overview from one of those teams on the current state of Tariffs is quite insightful, succinct, and balanced.  Oftentimes, it’s helpful to restate the information as our industry relies too much on jargon and not enough on straight talk.  In this case however, I’m not sure I can represent this topic any better so, here it is in its’ unvarnished state…

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]]> Part of doing the best job we can for you includes complementing our research with insights from top analyst teams around the world.  I believe this overview from one of those teams on the current state of Tariffs is quite insightful, succinct, and balanced.  Oftentimes, it’s helpful to restate the information as our industry relies too much on jargon and not enough on straight talk.  In this case however, I’m not sure I can represent this topic any better so, here it is in its unvarnished state…

 

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]]> Q1 GDP, April Employment and Inflation https://thesimmonspartnership.com/q1-gdp-april-employment-and-inflation/ Wed, 14 May 2025 20:32:54 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1059 Over the past two weeks we have received a lot of economic data, including first quarter GDP, April employment data, and April inflation data. While headline numbers were okay, there are some wonky caveats and timing issues to consider. Beyond the headline numbers, we are receiving some mixed signals about the health of the economy. The full effect of the Trump Tariffs is yet to appear in official statistics, but inflationary pressures persist and the labor market may have been throttling back prior to “Liberation Day.” While markets cheered this week’s announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs with China, we believe the underlying economic data provide reasons to proceed with caution. We’ve largely returned to the stretched equity valuations we had at the beginning of the year, but with a much more uncertain economic backdrop.

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