Delivering Financial Advice With Passion & Integrity
The Reber Report Q4 2025 – Reality Check: Asymmetric Risks & Shifting Economic Fundamentals
As we enter 2026, markets and the economy are sending mixed signals. Equity valuations remain elevated and headline GDP growth appears resilient, yet much of that strength has been narrowly driven by AI-related capital investment. Beneath the surface, economic growth has been uneven, inflation remains persistent, and labor market conditions have softened to levels not seen in over a decade.
The U.S. consumer holds the key to the outlook—but confidence trends are at record lows, affordability pressures remain acute, and job growth has weakened. While consumption has ticked up recently, it’s difficult to envision the consumer driving durable growth without meaningful improvement in labor conditions.
Nevertheless, investors shouldn’t underestimate the influence of policy. A more dovish Federal Reserve and fiscal tailwinds could provide support for risk assets in 2026.
In this environment, another year of broad, passive, double-digit equity returns looks unlikely. We believe investors should stay invested, but with greater selectivity—diversifying beyond the AI momentum trade, rotating into overlooked opportunities, and actively managing risk through disciplined portfolio construction, hedging, and liquidity.
The Reber Report Q3 2025 – Party Like It’s 1998
U.S. equity markets look eerily like the late 1990s. In Q3 2025, growth is weak, inflation is stubborn, and the Fed is cutting rates despite stretched valuations. The Reber Report warns investors to stay disciplined as risks of a market pullback increase.
The Reber Report – All That Glitters Is Not Gold
After a rough start to the second quarter, U.S. equity markets staged an impressive rally to get us back to where we were at the beginning of the year. While the recent exuberance may have temporarily quelled investor concerns, the rally is showing signs of stalling out and we see reasons to exercise caution heading into the summer.
Meanwhile, on the economic front, domestic consumption in Q1 was lackluster, the threat of inflationary pressures persists, and cracks are emerging in both the U.S. Treasury market and the labor market. In short, we have effectively returned to the stretched equity valuations we had at the beginning of the year, only with a much less stable economic foundation.
We are not yet in a recession. However, a weakening job market, fiscal and trade uncertainties, persistent inflationary pressures, extremely stretched equity valuations, and increased volatility in financial markets are inconsistent with a thriving economy. Whether or not we end up meeting the technical definition of a recession is largely irrelevant—if current trends continue, we could find ourselves in an environment that feels a lot like one. Investors should govern themselves accordingly.