Federal Reserve rate cuts Archives - The Simmons Partnership https://thesimmonspartnership.com/tag/federal-reserve-rate-cuts/ Delivering Financial Advice with Passion & Integrity Fri, 09 Jan 2026 20:21:46 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/cropped-tsp-favicon-32x32.jpg Federal Reserve rate cuts Archives - The Simmons Partnership https://thesimmonspartnership.com/tag/federal-reserve-rate-cuts/ 32 32 The Reber Report Q4 2025 – Reality Check: Asymmetric Risks & Shifting Economic Fundamentals https://thesimmonspartnership.com/reber-report-q4-2025-asymmetric-market-risks/ Fri, 09 Jan 2026 20:21:15 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1262 As we enter 2026, markets and the economy are sending mixed signals. Equity valuations remain elevated and headline GDP growth appears resilient, yet much of that strength has been narrowly driven by AI-related capital investment. Beneath the surface, economic growth has been uneven, inflation remains persistent, and labor market conditions have softened to levels not seen in over a decade.

The U.S. consumer holds the key to the outlook—but confidence trends are at record lows, affordability pressures remain acute, and job growth has weakened. While consumption has ticked up recently, it’s difficult to envision the consumer driving durable growth without meaningful improvement in labor conditions.

Nevertheless, investors shouldn’t underestimate the influence of policy. A more dovish Federal Reserve and fiscal tailwinds could provide support for risk assets in 2026.

In this environment, another year of broad, passive, double-digit equity returns looks unlikely. We believe investors should stay invested, but with greater selectivity—diversifying beyond the AI momentum trade, rotating into overlooked opportunities, and actively managing risk through disciplined portfolio construction, hedging, and liquidity.

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]]> In our Q4 2025 Reber Report, we examine growing imbalances in the U.S. economy as elevated equity valuations collide with weakening labor markets and slowing fundamentals. While AI investment has supported headline growth, underlying risks are becoming harder to ignore.

Key themes in this report include:

  • Asymmetric risks for investors created by historically high equity valuations
  • The role of AI investment in masking underlying economic weakness
  • Labor market trends, liquidity, and leverage signaling late-cycle conditions
  • Why diversification, active risk management, and hedging matter in 2026

If you have questions about how current market conditions may affect your portfolio or long-term plan, we encourage you to reach out to our team.

For related insights you may find these links helpful:

The Reber Report

Thinking Out Loud…

Market Commentary

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]]> The Reber Report Q3 2025 – Party Like It’s 1998 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/party-like-its-1998-q3-2025/ Wed, 01 Oct 2025 20:18:52 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1240 U.S. equity markets look eerily like the late 1990s. In Q3 2025, growth is weak, inflation is stubborn, and the Fed is cutting rates despite stretched valuations. The Reber Report warns investors to stay disciplined as risks of a market pullback increase.

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