Both stocks and bonds sold off the past two days, as the move fueled inflation concerns and the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections signaled fewer than expected rate cuts the rest of this year.

This setup is eerily similar to 1973 when an oil supply shock and Fed missteps fueled inflation and drove the U.S. economy into recession.

How things ultimately play out in the U.S. depends on the duration of the oil shock and the Fed’s policy response.

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