Monetary Policy Archives - The Simmons Partnership https://thesimmonspartnership.com/tag/monetary-policy/ Delivering Financial Advice with Passion & Integrity Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:10:26 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/cropped-tsp-favicon-32x32.jpg Monetary Policy Archives - The Simmons Partnership https://thesimmonspartnership.com/tag/monetary-policy/ 32 32 Fed Rate Cuts Would Risk Repeating the Mistakes of the 1970s https://thesimmonspartnership.com/fed-rate-cuts-would-risk-repeating-the-mistakes-of-the-1970s/ Thu, 19 Mar 2026 19:13:45 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1277 The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady highlights the increasingly complex economic backdrop. With slowing growth, persistent inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions, policymakers face difficult trade-offs. In this environment, the question isn’t just what the Fed will do next—but whether certain decisions could unintentionally echo past policy mistakes.

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]]> Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve’s policymaking body, announced its decision to hold short-term rates steady, ending the series of three straight rate cuts that closed out 2025.

Both stocks and bonds sold off the past two days, as the move fueled inflation concerns and the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections signaled fewer than expected rate cuts the rest of this year.

This setup is eerily similar to 1973 when an oil supply shock and Fed missteps fueled inflation and drove the U.S. economy into recession.

How things ultimately play out in the U.S. depends on the duration of the oil shock and the Fed’s policy response.

Read the full post below.

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]]> Q1 GDP, April Employment and Inflation https://thesimmonspartnership.com/q1-gdp-april-employment-and-inflation/ Wed, 14 May 2025 20:32:54 +0000 https://thesimmonspartnership.com/?p=1059 Over the past two weeks we have received a lot of economic data, including first quarter GDP, April employment data, and April inflation data. While headline numbers were okay, there are some wonky caveats and timing issues to consider. Beyond the headline numbers, we are receiving some mixed signals about the health of the economy. The full effect of the Trump Tariffs is yet to appear in official statistics, but inflationary pressures persist and the labor market may have been throttling back prior to “Liberation Day.” While markets cheered this week’s announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs with China, we believe the underlying economic data provide reasons to proceed with caution. We’ve largely returned to the stretched equity valuations we had at the beginning of the year, but with a much more uncertain economic backdrop.

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The post Q1 GDP, April Employment and Inflation appeared first on The Simmons Partnership.

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